I may have missed it in the article (I didn't think Carmack mentioned this), but I think the main reason mobile gaming will surpass consoles is the speed of mobile device hardware evolution vs the consoles. iOS devices get major changes / upgrades approx every 2 years, while Android devices get major changes / upgrades every 6 months or less. Compare this to the traditional console hardware life cycle where you only get major changes at a minimum of five years, but typically at 7-8 years before they retire something after a decade.
The economics of the iPad or Apple TV are much more like the Wii was than the PS3/360. Apple makes about a 35% gross margin on all their hardware. Microsoft and Sony both barely break even or lose money on each console just to push software revenue.
So, those companies work incredibly hard just to break even in hopes of long term profits. A break even company is going to bleed themselves to death competing with a company selling popular products at a 35% gross margin.
At the end of the day it boils down to profits and Apple has so much profit and cash that if they have a good enough product, they can dominate a market in a profitable way that nobody else seems to be able to match.
I wonder if this will cap out eventually though. How much power does the average user really need in a phone? Size and battery life will be more important than anything else before long I suspect.
That was clearly premature, but I don't see why we won't eventually arrive get to the same point we've reached with laptops & desktop computers where aesthetics and battery life count more than stats for most people.
