China for one won't approve the deal. China is feeling the squeezes of tech cut off. only 3 companies is allowed to make x86. RISC-V is not there yet. the only option left is ARM. huawei's hisilicon was designing top notch ARM cpu for huawei's phone. ARM is just too important for China.
Since when do I care what China thinks? Frankly, it wouldn't kill for global trade (where the west is concerned) to swing back 15-20 deg to more autonomy. To zero? Madness; just a correction.
The salad years of buying almost anything at Walmart, Tesco, Amazon for 15% less than what it'd cost from the west and taking that to the hoop as success are long gone.
The low fruit is increasingly picked for them too. They can't do cheap labor 24/7/365 forever just like we can't do cheap prices for ever. Eventually we'll both need to rebalance price, jobs, security, and so on.
>The salad years of buying almost anything at Walmart, Tesco, Amazon for 15% less than what it'd cost from the west and taking that to the hoop as success are long gone.
Not according to the vast majority of consumers. Look what trouble far less than a 15% rise in costs due to inflation is doing to consumers.
>They can't do cheap labor 24/7/365 forever
The west cannot do expensive labor forever. It's dying faster than cheap labor.
>The salad years of buying almost anything at Walmart, Tesco, Amazon for 15% less than what it'd cost from the west and taking that to the hoop as success are long gone.
Picking a current tangential issue and globbing it on to a needed global trade correction which has been in the making for the last 20 years is opportunistic. Inflation like this hasn't been seen in the US since the late 70s, for which there are many factors including Covid.
>The west cannot do expensive labor forever. It's dying faster than cheap labor.
US labor & regulation (where I am) is medium. Not stupidly high certainly not lowest. I think other places in the west find it harder here than us. Still I am not particularly pleased with US governmental institutional competence in the last 15 years. We are nowhere near our best, and sadly sucking in a few important areas.
I would remind that outsourcing to China did not start the behest of a US politician taking a call from Joe Smoe manager who asked if he should outsource. The move east with consequent impact on labor and larger issues was done by US business people. Further examples are obvious, but let's not dismiss self interest either.
Going back to my original point: I absolutely could not care less what the Chinese think on this particular issue. ARM isn't theirs anyway. China, whenever strategic dependency arises, wants their own lock-stock-and-barrel-stuff. MC/VISA will never be top there. And Intel/ARM/AMD/TSMC will never rule the roost there either. They will not be dependent on the west. So my question for the west: how much and how long are you gonna play a part in their goal? What are the limits? How do we know when enough is enough?
>Picking a current tangential issue and globbing it on to a needed global trade correction which has been in the making for the last 20 years is opportunistic
What you call opportunistic to make it less relevant I call illustrative of what a 15% rise in costs or prices means in reality.
Can you show me a place where such a large class of items went up in price that was not catastrophic? Yet you think it will be some golden return to rose colored yesteryear.
>US labor & regulation (where I am) is medium. Not stupidly high certainly not lowest.
I'm in the US also. US wages are among the highest few countries out of around 200 countries over the world. They're among the highest in the OECD. I'd hardly call that medium. Those countries with a higher average or median wage are barely above the US, so I'd think it's safe to say US wages are just about the highest in the world.
Why does an unskilled worker here make more than around 90% of the world population? Because he so amazing? Or because we have extraordinarily high labor costs? That unskilled work wage is not going to last, no matter how you slice it. Blaming China has pretty much zero to do with it - most low end jobs lost went to automation, and trying to make goods cost 15% more will only add pressure to automate more.
Not a logical reply. I provided evidence that cost increases below the magnitude you think will not cause harm will in fact cause harm.
Please provide an example where the 15% increase you think will not cause harm in fact does not cause harm. This is the second time I've asked for an example, and I suspect again you will not provide one.
Yes and no. China can't, no, but history tells us exactly what will happen. Japan used to be the "cheap and crappy electronics maker". At some point the population has been lifted enough that some other poor country will take over the bottom jobs. Likely somewhere in Africa. It is not as if China at some point will start to fall back to where it once were and even if it did all it would do would be to hold the production in China instead of the next country.
>Eventually we'll both need to rebalance price, jobs, security, and so on.
>It is not as if China at some point will start to fall back
I never said they were. Also babysitting Chinese outcomes is another not-my-problem. There's a whole invasive inflexible CCP state control thing going on there who, by the way, claim it as their problem.
It's also not a feature for China to fall back to some pre-Deng era. Knowing what I care and don't care about it is not equivalent to hoping China fails. Certainly not. Maybe China will rock and roll. Maybe they fall in disinflation like Japan did starting somewhere around the 1990s, from which I'm not sure they recovered.
I am saying the west has got to do a better job at realizing what the end game is for China in some important areas. And know what our concerns are, and do a better job at holding the line. Here, in the US, "show me the discount! show me the cheap!" cannot be the last thing heard.
>Eventually we'll both need to rebalance price, jobs, security, and so on.
Good! I love it when people lay down a hard line. Hard lines are easy to bust.
They're already adjusting their economy. The cheap labor is now found in the rest of SE Asia with east Africa viewed as growth potential for cheap labor by the Chinese.
