I'm perplexed that BTC's price dropped 5% yesterday and bounced right back today. How does the market not care that the biggest exchanges keep collapsing?
It's no more illogical than, say, the progression of the SPX500 and Dow Jones Industrial stock market indexes between 2019-2020-2023.
"How does the market not care vis-a-vis the gruelling recent pandemic, ongoing supply shocks, mounting climate change disasters, population curve declines, military instability ....... ?"
In Bitcoin's case, it needs be remembered that:
* Bitcoin as the original (and, in some ways, least sullied) crypto asset will have the greatest resilience
* Despite these exchanges having the greatest Trade Volumes, they are each only involved with a minority of the total global assets. That is, most Bitcoin that exists, has never touched Binance. Even more, most Bitcoin that exists, existed before Binance did.
* Markets aren't that predictable - attempting to trade a market in a buy/sell manner based upon whether today is a seeming Good News Day or Bad News Day ... well, if it was that easy, we'd all be doing it trivially
* The previous point is also adjunct to the fact that, for example, "obvious selling time" is most often leapt upon (with leverage) by amateur traders - whom the market then liquidates with a sudden contrary movement. A cynical manipulation certainly not unique to crypto markets, but yes absolutely ripe for them.
> It's no more illogical than, say, the progression of the SPX500 and Dow Jones Industrial stock market indexes between 2019-2020-2023.
> "How does the market not care vis-a-vis the gruelling recent pandemic, ongoing supply shocks, mounting climate change disasters, population curve declines, military instability .....
The progression was completely logical. Central banks deployed trillions in QE. Market participants decided that betting against institutions with so much money was not wise and joined the bull ride. We are now paying with inflation.
Remove the double-negative in my phrase "no more illogical", and my argument is that there is logical cause-and-effect in both situations, despite the easy potential for assuming a different outcome based upon select, surface assumptions.
Because BTC aren't stocks in Binance? Even if binance and many other exchanges close, there'll always be at least a few exchanges to operate, it's not like you won't be able to sell your BTC.
Also some people that had USD balances in Binance might have bought BTC so as to withdraw their funds to their wallet.
Bounce back is actually logical conclusion. If withdrawing BTC is faster it makes sense to buy it with dollars(in SEC's reach) and then moving them elsewhere and taking the money.
I think it's sort of priced in already. I expect certain cryptos will outlive even the biggest exchanges. That statement has been repeatedly over the last 12 years anyway.
