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Anything could be "The Great Filter". The best candidates for Great Filters are things which took a long time to happen on Earth (suggesting it may be a fluke or statistically rare event.) Conversely things that happen quickly, or things that independently happened multiple times suggest they aren't rare or unlikely events.

On Earth, high tech civilization appeared relatively shortly after humans evolved. Agriculture was independently invented half a dozen times in different places, and cities and civilization at least twice in the new and old world. We were also moving in the direction of science and technology even before we discovered coal power so the "other planets don't have fossil fuels" doesn't seem like a great candidate either.



No, our sample size of one tells us nothing due to selection bias - we could not even ask this question without having already achieved high tech.

Edit: I agree we do know that human brings on earth are likely to invent agriculture.


It may depend on the availability on various natural resources, such as big (domesticable) animals, as hypothesized by Jared Diamond in "Guns, Germs and Steel". This is why native Australians were pretty much stuck in stone age era for thousands of years. They might have never developed beyond that level. Not because they're inferior, but because they had no means to start an economy capable of accumulating resources. One could easily imagine an Earth where the only continent is Australia (surrounded by oceans) and humans - even biologically identical to us - remain hunter-gatherers for eternity.


Yes,

But I show add there is even a view with no "Great Filter" at all. That is the claim that life on the Earth has developed with a steady, linear increase in log-complexity whose zero-point is fairly close to the big-bang. And thus the human species developing now is developing about as early as it could have, as quickly as it could have and so there's no surprise that no civilizations earlier than us elsewhere exist even if we plausibly expect these civilization to be appearing now.


There are solar systems much older than the Earth. Evolution is definitely not linear. See punctuated equilibrium and mass extinction events. And there are millions of species on the planet. Evolution has branched many times. If that was true every branch should evolve in a similar direction at the same rate, but that doesn't seem to be the case at all.


Define much, earth is more than half the age of the universe. And another possibility is earth life came from off-planet - quite possible if life is common in the universe.

Punctured equilibrium is a good theory to explain particular species diversity and morphology. It may or may explain increases in complexity as such and there may or may not be a tendency for the various jumps to even each other out over time.

I'm arguing I know such a theory is true, just that things are so complex that no theory is definitive.


But even if you are correct, there could still be civilizations several millions of years older than us. Earth's history would have turned out completely differently if it wasn't for various asteroid impacts and geological events. The chance of two intelligent species evolving within a few thousand years of each other is pretty low.




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